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Warren Buffett On Finding The Right Investing Strategy For You
Plus, how physics' mental model of Momentum applies to investing
Read Time: 5-minutes
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Today, we’re going to look at:
Warren Buffett’s thoughts on finding an investing strategy that’s right for you, by way of a story about chess prodigy Josh Waitzkin
What we can learn from physics’ mental model of “Momentum” & its applications for investing.
Insights from Buffett on his unexpected perspective on his role as an investor, Robert Greene on the role of creativity in our journey of achieving mastery, & James Clear on what allows successful individuals to repeatedly win.
Let’s dive in.
1. Story
"The chess prodigy Josh Waitzkin quit playing chess around the age of 18.
'I was a naturally creative, aggressive chess player,' Waitzkin explained. 'My style was to create chaos on the chessboard, and my strength lay in finding hidden harmonies.'
With this style, Waitzkin won the U.S. Junior Chess Championship at the age of 11 and became an International Master at age 16. Then, Waitzkin got a coach who forced him to play like the world champions, Anatoly Karpov and Tigran Petrosian—'the most positional, conservative chess players.'
When he was forced to hide the style that matched his natural proclivities, Waitzkin said, 'I lost my love for the game.' So Waitzkin quit playing chess, and shortly after, he took up martial arts.
He trained for just two years before he won his first national championship in martial arts.
Asked if he took anything from chess into the martial arts, Waitzkin said he didn’t hide his unique physical and mental traits.
'And in my observation of competitors in any discipline, this is a really fundamental idea,' he said. 'Those who succeed at the highest level, I think, basically manifest their unique character through their discipline.'”
There are a lot of different investing strategies. Many at odds with themselves. Some are short-term, others long-term:
A lot of financial debates are just people with different time horizons talking over each other.
— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel)
4:52 PM • Dec 14, 2023
Some believe in value investing, aka, buying 40-cent dollar bills:
“It is extraordinary to me that the idea of buying dollar bills for 40-cents takes immediately with people or it doesn’t take at all. It’s like an inoculation. If it doesn’t grab a person right away, I find you can talk to him for years, and show him records, and it just doesn’t make any difference. They just don’t seem able to grasp the concept, simple as it is…I’ve never seen anyone who became a gradual convert over a ten-year period to this approach. It doesn’t seem to be a matter of I.Q. or academic training. It is instant recognition or it is nothing.”
Others in quantitative strategies, technical trading, derivatives—the list goes on.
The key is to find one that fits your personality, skillset, & objectives well:
“Part of the game of investing is to 'come into your own.' You must find some way that perfectly fits your personality.”
— Li Lu
— Investment Wisdom (@InvestingCanons)
2:03 PM • Sep 18, 2024
And resist the urge to automatically adopt what works for another investor.
This begs the question:
How do you know when you've "found your fit?"
2 tests stand out:
The first, as Buffett alluded to above, the strategy makes sense to you almost immediately.
Everything seems aligned—time horizon, risk-to-reward, etc.
The second test:
"Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night."
— Seth Klarman
— Investment Wisdom (@InvestingCanons)
1:03 PM • Oct 13, 2024
If you can sleep well while your portfolio weathers temporary declines, you may have found your match.
Waitzkin’s story is a cautionary tale:
There are a lot of different strategies that work—but not every strategy works for everybody.
The key is to find the strategy that works for you.
2. Mental Model
"You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely — all of them, not just a few.” — Charlie Munger
Today, we pull from the discipline of physics. Specifically, an instructive & powerful mental model for investing & business: Momentum.
In physics, momentum is velocity times mass, or the quantity of motion of an object. In simple terms, the more momentum an object holds, the more difficult it is to stop.
3 applications of Momentum for investing:
1. Momentum strategy:
If you've been around investing for any amount of time, you've probably encountered the term "Momentum Investing.”
This is the idea that stock prices that have gone up recently will continue in the same direction.
And, actually, studies have shown Momentum Investing to perform well.
However, it’s antithetical to the Graham-Munger-Buffett strategy of value investing. Momentum investing chases performance & relies on another investor to pay you more for shares—without regard to fundamental value.
Yet, if you’re a value investor, it’s still helpful to be aware of momentum stocks to take advantage of from a contrarian perspective…
2. Contrarianism
The momentum investing strategy offers opportunities for value investors to take advantage of when the positive momentum runs out.
“The overwhelming majority of people are comfortable with consensus—but successful investors tend to have a contrarian bent.”
When momentum stocks swing the other way, underpriced stocks can be picked up at bargain prices:
“Psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings—profit if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.”
— Howard Marks
— Investment Wisdom (@InvestingCanons)
8:51 PM • Oct 12, 2024
3. Compound Interest
And taking advantage of underpriced stocks can create greater momentum for our overall portfolio to compound more effectively.
After all, the better deals we get, the more opportunity for appreciation…
Which creates ever-growing capital to reinvest in more opportunities:
“My life has been a product of compound interest.”
3. Insights
"Investing is the art of laying out cash now to get a whole lot more cash later on."
"I regard Berkshire Hathaway sort of like a painter regards a painting, the difference being the canvas is unlimited."
"Engaged in the creative process we feel more alive than ever, because we are making something and not merely consuming, Masters of the small reality we create. In doing this work, we are in fact creating ourselves."
Goals are for people who care about winning once. Systems are for people who care about winning repeatedly.
— James Clear (@JamesClear)
4:01 PM • Oct 30, 2024
Key Takeaways:
As Waitzkin’s story showed, attempting to mimic the best in the world doesn’t necessarily lead to success. In fact, it could be to our detriment. Other investors may be profitable with their own strategies, but we must watch them with a wary eye: what worked for them, may not be a great fit for our own personality, risk tolerance, & investing goals.
2 ways to test whether we’ve found the right investing strategy for us:
It makes sense almost immediately: Buffett found that those who are highly confident in value investing, for example, almost immediately understand the strategy—or never do.
It passes “The Zzz’s Test”: Whatever strategy we choose, it’s almost inevitable we may experience some portfolio declines. If we can sleep peacefully at night during these down periods, with confidence in our approach, we may have found the right strategy.
Well, that’s all for this week
I hope you enjoyed these lessons.
See you next Saturday.
Two resources I think you might like:
Book Summaries: One of the most important lessons from Charlie Munger is to strive to become a little bit wiser each day. To accelerate my learning on everything from investing & decision-making to negotiating & habit-building, I use Blinkist (Thank you to the Blinkist team as their affiliate program helps keep this newsletter free to the reader). Blinkist offers easily readable book summaries to help you get the most valuable ideas from the most popular books. You can check out Blinkist here.
Mental Exercises: To paraphrase Morgan Housel, the common factor among elite investors is they have complete control over the space in between their ears. Financial news networks and social media can create a lot of "noise" for investors. To stay focused and calm, I like to use Headspace (I don't receive any compensation from Headspace currently). Headspace offers mindset and breathing exercises to help you keep control over the space between your ears. You can check out Headspace here.
Disclaimers
This material is not investment advice. No responsibility for loss occasioned to any person or corporate body acting or refraining to act as a result of reading this material can be accepted by the publisher. Additional disclaimers here.
Worth Exploring:
Joel Greenblatt: Patience In The Investing Business
David Einhorn: Q3 2024 Letter
Jeremy Grantham: How To Spot A Market Bubble
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